She said after people express general support for the war, researchers use more questions to better understand how they view the war and its impact on their lives. Koneva said her research group has focused on examining the opinions of the core audience that supports Russia’s war in Ukraine. The number of respondents who say Russia should “cease hostilities while maintaining the occupied territories” has more than doubled since last summer, from 11% to 28%. Overall, researchers say they have tracked just a 9% fall in support for the war last year. Sixteen months after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the majority of respondents still support the war, and only 20% say they are against. "Trended data can also be very informative about the direction of changes in public opinion even if the magnitude is exaggerated."Īt first glance, the Koneva group's most recent polls from Russia continue to show broad public support for the war. shifts in the trend over time show that people are willing to report changes in opinion," she wrote. "Even if the baseline result may be affected by self-censorship. In a written response to questions, she said that despite the self-censorship, pollsters "can usually have higher confidence in the reliability of poll findings that show some fluctuation over time." Galina Zapryanova, senior regional editor for the Gallup World Poll, told VOA that polling in Russia " has indeed become more challenging since 2022, but it is not impossible." One participant said, “Thank you for the opportunity not to testify against myself.” She said researchers believe that people who disagree with the war often answer this way. “For example, when we ask people about support for the war, we give the option to evade the answer: 'Do you support, do not support, find it difficult to answer or do not want to answer this question?’ The new position - 'I don't want to answer this question' - is almost a protest.” “Analysts have learned to deal with and avoid authoritarian pressure,” said Koneva, founder of independent research agency ExtremeScan. Voice of America’s Russian Service contacted one of these researchers - Elena Koneva - about how she and her team approach their work phoning people in Russia and asking for their opinions. They are still trying to track Russian public opinion on key topics, including the war in Ukraine, providing a rare window into how the Russian public views the war’s dramatic turns over the last 18 months. Vladimir Putin’s Russia has sharply constricted the space for free expression in recent years, but some independent pollsters who fled the country have not abandoned their work.
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